Is it remotely possible for Clinton to win the Democratic ticket?
by admin on Saturday, January 1st, 2011 | 26 Comments
Obama is up 199 delegates, with three primaries left. Clinton has a lock on Puerto Rico and Obama will most likely win in South Dakota and Montana. When I see that Clinton would have to take like 90% of the remaining 194 superdelegates, I don’t understand how Hillary has a chance. I’ll be honest, I’m for Obama, but this question isn’t meant to be inflammatory or derisive. I just don’t get how Clinton’s camp thinks she can still pull it out.
It’s my understanding that Obama currently has 320 pledged superdelegates and Clinton has 283.
Nope. I believe she is basing her chances upon what they call “Clinton Math,” where 2+2=10. She’s done.
The supers have not voted yet, no one will win until the convention, where the supers will decide. She still has a chance, she just needs to prove she will be able to beat McCain.
I think it is like a team playing the remainder of its schedule after they’ve been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. You want to finish with pride.
I think she knows its lip service to say she can still win.
She has not disclosed the trump card yet. Who knows what she is holding for the last moment. And she IS holding.
That is why she has high hopes and doesn’t quit.
Only if she is given IL and FL and the super delegates. she will have the popular vote.
When they make a decision about Mi and Fl it may change. You should be praying Obama doesn’t get the nom. The Dems will lose for sure.
And all those supposed Delegates especially S.D. will not count until Aug. Don’t count your chickens until they hatch and they won’t hatch until Aug.
yes I light a candle at church for her
Yes, but extremely unlikely. If the super delegates saw http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May29.html and compared it to http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May29.html they’d make Hillary the nominee in a heart beat.
When, oh when, will the people who keep asking this question learn the frigging RULES!
It does NOT matter who has the MOST delegates. What matters is that a candidate get 2025 delegates. (Superdelegates don’t even enter in at this point!) If neither candidate gets the needed number of delegates, it goes to a BROKERED CONVENTION. (Look up the term at wikipedia.) The representatives can vote for anyone, regardless of any promise made.
In the case of a brokered convention, anyone can win!
It’s that freaking simple!
I don’t think it’s too likely. But, all of those superdelegates are free to vote for whomever they choose at the convention. If they think that Hillary Clinton offers a better hope of carrying election day, they will jump ship and vote for her despite what they have said in the media. Obama’s campaign has gone noticeably sour during the past several weeks, while Clinton’s has picked up some steam. Clinton has taken the big states and the democrats need those voters in November.
Remotely, yes.
In reality, no.
Unless someone pulls a 2000/2004 Bush ‘victory’, I’d say Clinton is done.
My guess is that Clinton is still banking on FL & MI. But even then, she doesn’t have a great chance.
Slim to none chance. Only possible way is if the so call super delegates overturn the election, but that will indeed create chaos.
depends upon the mood of the super delegates but mathematically its impossible
Kerry had over 2,100 delegates by early March 2004 but he still LOST the general election in November. Obama can’t get past 2,000 and it’s almost June. What does that tell you???
yes remotely remember RFK was assassinated
Anything is possible, especially when the govt and politicians bend rules to their liking.
the only way would be for her to recieve like 90% of the remaining super delegates. Which would result in riots. No she will not be the nominee and likely not VP nominee either. But let’s be honest it doesn’t really matter. As soon as Edwards conceded McCain won the presidency.
She will not get Illinois as Ed M suggests because Sen. Obama has already won this state by a landslide. This is Hillary’s home state.
LMAO, she has lost already. She’s done; stick a fork in her.
Yes it is possible, not to probable but possible. Remember they said Kerry was going to win the last presidential election but he didn’t. Even the (cough cough) polls had him winning by a long shot.
Clinton’s argument is that she is the most electable candidate going up against McCain. Further, she argues that the Superdelegate system was designed in part to ensure that the most electable candidate is the one that is chosen **even if** a grass-roots movement (in the style of George McGovern) is tipping the balance the other way.
Does she have a chance of pulling this off?
Given the current circumstance the Superdelegates would have to turn their backs on the most dedicated voting block in the Democrat Party i.e., blacks, in order to give Hillary the nomination. There’s simply no other way to do it and it can’t be window dressed. For blacks it would be seen as a sign of disrespect at the minimum. Think the Dems are going to do that? I don’t.
I do not think it is possible at all
But…if there is anything we found about this election
If it not possible …it usually is
Can not wait until June 3rd……tired of the way her supporters have blamed Obama over this….no matter what is said they still blame him
Also…tired of Mc Cains group using the supporters against each other for months now
Probably not. But I don’t care because I’m switching from dem to McCain if Obama gets the nom anyway. Millions of women are joining me and this will be the first time in a long time that the repubs will get the women vote. By the way the repubs always get the male vote so that means the repubs will get the mens vote and the women’s vote. What does that leave for Obama?????
I guess Obama will gets the other gender. Which one is that? I thought there was only two. But if there are only two and McCain gets them both then doesn’t that mean that McCain will win the general election?????
Mathematically, she still has an outside chance.
It would require:
1) The RBC ignoring the rules and the DNC staff memo and seating Michigan and Florida in full based on the advisory primaries from January.
2) Obama not get the remaining 11 Edwards delegates in Florida and the remaining 33 uncommitted delegates in Michigan and the remaining 7 other Edwards delegates (Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire).
3) Keeping Obama under 30 delegates from the remaining 3 contests.
4) Splitting the remaining 32 add-on delegates still to be chosen close to 50-50.
5) Not losing any delegates at the remaining state conventions.
6) Getting over two-thirds of the unpledged delegates already chosen who have not yet committed.
If the RBC goes with the staff interpretation of the rules( no better than half votes for Michigan and Florida), and give Obama half of the remaining Edwards and Uncommitted delegates, 40 delegates from the last three races, and half of the remaining add-ons, Obama is only 14 out of 193 unpledged delegates short of the the nomination.
EDIT: Now that the RBC has met, Obama is 66 votes short of being the presumptive nominee.
There are three primaries left, Clinton is hoping to keep Obama in the 14-17 range in Puerto Rico and a combined total of 14-15 on Tuesday. Obama is hoping for 20-24 from Puerto Rico and 17-20 on Tuesday. Obama is likely to get 13-20 of the 32 remaining unnamed add-ons. There are at least 4 unpledged delegates who have indicated that they will support the leader in pledged delegates (which Obama has now clinched). That puts Obama within 20 of the nomination (and maybe over) with 169 unpledged delegates still to declare (not counting the unamed add-ons) and 10.5 Edwards delegates and the 3 to be determined Iowa delegates (currently estimated as Edwards delegates but likely to be split between Clinton and Obama). Not counting new add-ons, Obama got 8 unpledged delegates last week and 12 the week before that.
We are fast moving past remote. If Obama breaks 40% in Puerto Rico, remote becomes impossible.
McCain for President, it tells me that he was facing some of the most popular politicians today, John Edwards and Bill Richardson, along with one of the most popular First Ladys and Senators of all time, and still won.
She can’t win the nomination. She can only steal it.
I can not believe how rediculous people are. Soo many people are going off of what the media is saying. Their all talk. Think about it, they are on TV 24/7. They have to keep everyone entertained and talking!!
I truley believe that Hillary Clinton will win the nomination because they will wake up and realize that Obama can not win against McCain.